The 34 Influences That Will Drive the Future of Farming

Will overseas food trends and challenges, like the rise of ‘fake meat’ and concerns about food waste, affect farmers and growers in New Zealand?

A new report from the Our Land and Water National Science Challenge presents an up-to-date summary of global issues, trends and innovations with potential to influence the agri-food sector in New Zealand, linked to current science and reliable sources.

The Matrix of Drivers: 2019 Update report compiles and summarises an evidence base of 1,093 international and domestic sources of information, selected through an academic literature review process. This process also considered key strategic and regulatory documents from New Zealand’s government and regional agencies, and information from primary sector groups and farmer associations.

This evidence base is open access, providing clear links to credible, relevant primary sources of evidence about primary sector trends and challenges.

The report also includes a review of international consumer preferences studies, providing evidence for the range of premiums that New Zealand export customers are willing to pay for attributes such as organic certification.

34 key influences, ranked by experts

The research team identified 34 key drivers likely to impact on land use change and practice in New Zealand. To assess the relative importance of these drivers, in October/November 2019 researchers surveyed primary sector leaders and others with an interest in New Zealand’s primary industries. Open-ended questions were included to allow participants to identify the most critical issues without being prompted.

Climate change was significantly more important to participants than any other international issue, with significant growth in concern since the previous survey (September/October 2017). Domestically, water quality was indicated to be important to more participants (closely followed by climate change) than any other domestic issues.

Participants also identified environmental conditions, GHG emissions, water quality and trade agreements as international drivers that would have a high impact on land use. Domestically, participants identified water quality, nitrate limits, environmental condition, GHG emissions and biosecurity as important drivers.

Six global changes most likely to impact New Zealand

Six broad categories of future influences were identified by the research team as most likely to affect New Zealand land use: climate change, global trends and challenges, emerging technologies, innovative products/new food technology, consumer trends, and the international trading environment.

Unsurprisingly, climate change was identified as the global challenge most likely to be highly impactful on New Zealand land use change and practice in the future, with a likelihood of significant disruptions to regional production trends, biosecurity, ecosystem integrity and social conditions, as well as producing higher frequency and intensity extreme weather events and heavily influencing domestic policy regarding land use.

A growing global population, coupled with the challenges of maintaining a social license to operate, combating food waste and maintaining stable markets, were also identified as challenges on a global scale. Greater development and use of new technologies designed to provide data and improve practices, both on-farm and in-market, are also highly likely to influence land use trends.

Consumer preferences are also changing, with an increased market presence for alternative protein products, as well as increasing interest in vegetarian, vegan and flexitarian diets. The international trading environment will also continue to contribute to the success of New Zealand’s primary product exports, particularly with the development of bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements.

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For more information:

• Read the full report
• The Matrix of Drivers project
• Open-access evidence base
• The 34 drivers, linked to factsheets:
  1. Agricultural and Trade Policy
  2. Air Quality
  3. Animal Health and Welfare
  4. Authenticity and Traceability
  5. Biodiversity
  6. Biosecurity
  7. Brand
  8. Chemical Residues
  9. Climate Change
  10. Country-of-Origin
  11. Cultural Values
  12. Demographics
  13. Digital Communication Systems
  14. Emissions Trading Schemes
  15. Environmental Condition
  16. Extreme Weather Events
  17. Family and Community
  18. Food Safety
  19. Functional Food
  20. Gene Technology
  21. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
  22. Innovative Products
  23. Local Food/Food Miles
  24. Organic Production
  25. Pasture-Based Production
  26. Precision Agriculture
  27. Product Quality
  28. Religion
  29. Social Responsibility and Fair Trade
  30. Soil Quality
  31. Sustainable Supply
  32. Waste and Recycling
  33. Water Footprinting and Use
  34. Water Quality