Predicting Agricultural Research Adoption

Using ADOPT (Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool) to determine time to peak levels of research adoption

Project Details Ngā taipitopito

Project Status:
Challenge funding:
Research duration:
October 2020 – June 2022
May 2023 – December 2023

Collaborators Ngā haumi

AgResearch | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

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What are we doing?E aha ana mātou?

ADOPT is a web-based tool that predicts the potential adoptability of specific agricultural technology by a target population of users. It is designed to help its users analyse how an agricultural innovation will be adopted within a given population of farmers – and what might need to change to improve the adoptability of the innovation.

The suite of Our Land and Water’s research will be analysed using ADOPT to predict the impact of this research on the adoption of environmental practices, including variable rate irrigation, slow release fertilisers, Farm Environment Plans and diversified land uses. This work will estimate the relative time to peak adoption of research findings and innovations, compared to a ‘counterfactual’ scenario where Our Land and Water doesn’t exist. The project includes an expert panel to review and advise on assumptions used in the analysis.

The aim of this work is to demonstrate the impact of Our Land and Water-funded research and increase the adoption and use of new research findings and innovations, by making reasonable changes to research programmes that were suggested or supported by applying the ADOPT process.

How can the research be used? Ka pēhea e whai take ai te rangahau?

  • Using ADOPT will quantify the relative time to peak adoption of Our Land and Water’s research outputs. This will help evaluate the potential impact of Our Land and Water science and the way that science is conducted, which has a goal to halve the time to peak adoption through innovations in the science process, such as involving stakeholder collaborators in most research teams.
  • This project will identify critical factors influencing the level of and time to peak adoption. This will help Our Land and Water identify opportunities to increase the adoptability of its research outputs. This information can be used by research teams to adapt their activities to increase the adoptability of their programme outputs, and by Our Land and Water and its stakeholders to identify activities that would increase the adoptability of research outputs.

Participation & engagement Te hunga i whai wāhi mai

  • This research is a trans-Tasman collaboration with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), an Australian federal government agency responsible for scientific research. Its chief roles include improving the economic and social performance of industry and facilitating utilisation of research results. ADOPT is owned by CSIRO and was developed through funding by the Cooperative Research Centre for Future Farm Industries, and support from GRDC, ACIAR, CSIRO, University of Western Australia, DAFWA and Victorian DEPI.
  • Adoption of the following technologies or practices (which are supported by Our Land and Water research) are being assessed for sub-sets of potential users:
    • Slow-release fertiliser, for pasture-based livestock farms where P-loss is an issue
    • Variable rate irrigation, for Canterbury dairy farms with pivot irrigation where nutrient losses are an issue
    • Farm Environment Plans, for pasture-based livestock farms where farmers are members of catchment groups
    • Riparian zone management, for pasture-based livestock farms where farmers are members of catchment groups
    • Beef and lamb regenerative agriculture practices, for pasture-based livestock farms
    • Land use diversification, for non-Māori dairy, sheep and beef farmers in Rotorua catchment
    • Conversion to organic dairy, for dairy farms in the Waikato
    • Dairy farm environmental accreditation, for dairy farms on the Canterbury Plains

Research team Te hunga i whai wāhi mai

Project Lead/ Science Lead
Rick Llewellyn
James Turner

Tools & resources Ngā utauta me ngā rauemi

Interactive Tool


ADOPT (the Adoption & Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool) is an online tool that predicts farmer uptake of new agricultural practices and innovations. It estimates time…
View Interactive Tool

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