Synthesis Scenarios for Future Land Use

What are we doing?E aha ana mātou?

Land stewards need evidence to support suggestions that changing their farming system will lead to improvements in local waterways that are in proportion to their investment in land-use change.

This project is undertaking scenario modelling to show how a water quality target can be met in three catchments by changing land use. These scenarios will not compromise profitability, increase greenhouse gas emissions, or result in other environmental impacts.

The three catchments are Waihao (Canterbury), Tukituki (Hawke’s Bay) and Rai Valley (Marlborough). These catchments have community-defined water quality objectives that are unlikely to be achieved through reasonable mitigation efforts alone. Water quality in these catchments is responding directly to current agricultural land use, and this is the dominant cause of poor water quality.

The scenarios will draw on research previously funded by Our Land and Water to identify land use opportunities and use catchment and attenuation modelling to assess achievable improvements in water.