Why Pines? A context for recent research results which appear to support land conversion into pine forestry

Four research programmes funded by the Our Land and Water (Toitū te Whenua, Toiora te Wai) National Science Challenge (OLW) and completed in autumn 2024 each considered how land uses might change in the future to meet environmental goals, assuming current policies and economic incentives remain unchanged. Despite using different techniques and perspectives, all suggest a likely increase in pine plantations in Aotearoa New Zealand, on land currently used for sheep and beef farming.

Because the results of these research programmes reinforce each other, OLW has written this short article to provide a wider context for the results, highlight the limitations and constraints of this modelling, and recommend possible next steps.

These research results certainly raise concerns. Rural and Māori communities have expressed concern about intergenerational equity with the conversion of productive sheep and beef land to pine forestry. They foresee that it will remove families and jobs from communities, leading to future depopulation and the loss of rural schools and community organisations. Other concerns include the lower biodiversity value of pine forest compared to native vegetation, and the potential impacts of forestry waste on freshwater systems, estuaries and infrastructure.

However, these results can also act as a catalyst for a much-needed conversation about what communities want for their lifestyles, land and landscapes in this country, and whether our current economic, agricultural and environmental policies can deliver this. The research also highlights a need for more quantitative information on more land uses than those currently dominant (dairy, sheep and beef, and exotic forestry). We need to be able to model the economic and non-economic value, and scalable potential, of arable and horticulture land uses, and other less common and potential alternative land uses.

There are three factors influencing the research findings: real and true physical and economic reasons; constraints and choices related to modelling the future; and the current policy settings and incentives that are included in the modelling.

OLW believes the results point to the need for more of the type of grounded, collaborative information generation and decision-making the National Science Challenges have championed. The issue of agricultural land conversion has many dimensions and is influenced by factors other than economic returns. It involves value judgments as well as different cultural perspectives and perceptions of wellbeing, so it calls for inclusive participation and representation.