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Future scenarios for arable agriculture – model

This model allows the exploration of scenarios related to the profitability, resilience, and sustainability of arable agriculture in New Zealand over the next 5–30 years.

The user-friendly interface makes it possible to explore scenarios related to the development of a particular crop, changes to the whole sector, the evolution of prices, changes in yields, as well as the environmental effects of changes in agricultural practices (fertilization, irrigation, livestock feed).

The default data is 2021, sourced from AFIC, StatsNZ and FAOSTAT. Users can then modify the “Arable production inputs” and the “Technology and mitigation options” values according to their simulation or scenario requirements. The model then produces outputs on calories, proteins, irrigation water use, emissions, and export values.

Click here for a video tutorial for this model interface

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Source: Vannier, C.; Cochrane, T.A.; Zawar-Reza, P.; Bellamy, L. Development of a Systems Model for Assessing Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable, and Profitable Agriculture in New Zealand. Land 2022, 11, 2334. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122334
Vannier C., Cochrane T.A., Zawar Reza P., Bellamy L.: “An Analysis of Agricultural Systems Modelling Approaches and Examples to Support Future Policy Development under Disruptive Changes in New Zealand”. Applied Sciences, 12, 2746. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12052746

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