Collaborative expert judgement analysis of uncertainty associated with catchment-scale nitrogen load modelling with OVERSEER

The widespread view that use of OVERSEER-derived N loss estimates to set catchment-scale nutrient limits is an inappropriate use of this tool needs to be addressed to maximise stakeholder acceptance of these limits. Accounting for uncertainty is the best way to deal with this issue. This paper shows how a formal expert judgement elicitation framework was used to approximately quantify uncertainty around catchment-scale modelled N loss rates.